Sometimes you must see that you are HOT. As well at times and this is tougher, you have to see that you are cold. Both will happen when you have a game plan for handicapping. The last two NFL games I really thought the games would go over at the half and both games went well over at the half.
You must trust what you are watching and react to what you are seeing. With the Jets and Patriots I felt like New England had it all their own way but I knew I was going to win the side. I did not want to throw away a winner so I did not trust what I was looking at and did not make a half time bet. The reason I did not is simple, in general I do not play half time plays.
On two nights while winning almost every game I have looked at, I got scared and it cost me two easy wins. Most people will FIND those extra plays or chase bets to gety out of a losing streak. You must strike while the iron is hot.
Tonight I really liked Ball State +19 but they did not fit all of my criteria so I passed. Right now that choice looks like it will cost me a unit. The all important units must be built when you are feeling it. Funny thing is as I watch this game I hope that Northern Illinois does not take take the lead, they are moving the football and at the right number will be a solid half time wager.
Can Oklahoma State with that unreal offense stay undefeated and have the wonderful match up of great defense against a perfect offense, win a national championship? I have always been a great believer in defense wins championships and great offenses go down when it counts.
In baseball this year the top scoring team won it all without a true ace having a ACE type of year, so things may be changing. The San Francisco Giants last year couldn't hit their way out of a paper sack but the offense knew that 3 runs were all they needed in most cases.
Northern Illinois just tied it up and have 300 yards of offense in the first half. That has blowout written all over it or at least an over bet at the half. The number of course must be right. 34 or 35 and it is an over play. If the number is close to 40 then a pass is a must.
I suggest that you do not make larger wagers when on fire but I do say play games that you do have a well though out opinion on. Most important, do not triple up when losing and hoping for a win.
Trust what you are doing and have a plan. Have an idea how conservative you must be when losing and how hot you are when you are on a tear.
Here is an exercise, when handicapping try and see how the game is going to be played out in your mind. Every now and again you will get it right and there is no greater feeling as a winning handicapper how spectacular that feels. When you are on fire, you will be amazed at how often you get this correct. When losing you will find that you are so very wrong and that is a hint that you are cold.
Have a great day
No comments:
Post a Comment