Tuesday, December 13, 2011

20 teams alive and 3 weeks to go. HOW FUN IS THIS

As a sports handicapper, I will give you the number one advice you will ever get. This advice will save you hundreds, thousands or with big bettors millions! Here it is folks.

Just because a team has to win does not mean that the team will win or cover!!!

AFC

The AFC is as wild as it gets this late in a season. You have 9 teams alive for 6 spots. Two of the divisions are all wrapped up. The Houston Texans(10-3) with all of their injury problems have won their division. The Texans also have a great chance to be the number one seed.

The New England Patriots(10-3) have a two game lead with 3 games left to play, so they are locked in. It is a matter of do they have enough to get that number 1 seed.

The Baltimore Ravens(10-3) are tied for the top spot in their division with the Pittsburgh Steelers(10-3) but with the Ravens beating Pittsburgh twice, it gives the Ravens the lead for the division title.

The Denver Bronco's(8-5) have come from nowhere to take a one game lead over the Oakland Raiders(7-6). This is really a 2 game lead with other tie breakers. The Bronco's will face their toughest challenge during the winning streak coming up on Sunday. The New England Patriots come calling and Denver might not be able to keep up with the Patriot fireworks show.


Here is where it gets very interesting. The 2 wildcards will come from these 6 teams. N.Y Jets(8-5) and since their coach said they were going to win it all, it is a must to get to the playoffs. Pittsburgh Steelers(10-3) Only thing holding them back from their own title is the 2 losses to the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati Bengals(7-6) They may have ruined their dreams with that heart breaking loss against Houston last week. Tennessee Titans(7-6) If the referee had seen the easiest face mask call in the history of the NFL, the Titans would be in a much better position. Oakland Raiders(7-6) The last thing I would have thought I would write about the Oakland Raiders is that they have no heart. To no show 2 weeks in a row, with the talent that Hugh has brought in to make the playoffs now....Is shameful. There has been injuries and the star quarterback is learning on the fly, but the moves made for this team are for now. San Diego Chargers(6-7) Some how some way the Chargers never go away.

Who will have the best chance to wrap up those 2 spots? In no order, let's see what we can figure out with this wild bunch.

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3 With 3 games left Pittsburgh probably only needs one more win to secure a playoff spot. San Francisco(10-3) comes up this Monday, this will be their toughest contest. Both teams have a lot to play for and it will be a full throttle game. The Rams(2-11) come up next and the back ups could beat the Rams. They finish up with Cleveland(4-9)which will be a good game. When Pittsburgh goes up against the Browns, it is always closer then it should be. That game will also depend on if the Steelers have a chance to win their division.

New York Jets 8-5 With 3 games left, the Jets are the front runner for one of the spots. The Jets have the Philadelphia Eagles(5-8) The Eagles have a little something to play for, which will mean they will be playing for keeps. The Jets should be able to get by the Eagles and as a 3 point dog I do have a nice play on the Jets. The Jets next game is against the New York Giants(9-7) who are in the middle of their own playoff battle. The Giants have a very tough time running the football and will have to rely on the pass. The Jets have not had the greatest defensive year, this game will go down to the wire. The last game for the Jets is the Miami Dolphins(4-9). The Dolphins have no coach, no chance of getting Luck in the draft and not a lot to play for. I see the Jets finishing the season at 10-6. That is a magic number to make the playoffs in years past. Last year for the first time in the history of the league 2 teams with 10 wins did not make the playoffs. 10-6 this year will get a team into the dance, so go J....E....T....S

Cincinnati Bengals 7-6 With 3 games left the Bengals will have to win at least 2 of those games. The Bengals have had a very tough few weeks. They are playing well enough to win every game but they are not finishing games off. The Bengals have done enough to save their head coaches job, now they have to make the playoffs. The Bengals do have a good offense, which is very young and this group will build into something good over the next few years. The Cincinnati defense is no wimp. They only give up 21 points a game and barley 100 yards on the ground. The ST Louis Rams(2-11) are first on the list and that is a good thing for their chance at the playoffs. the Rams are not playing well enough in any faze of the game to hang with the Bengals. The 2nd game for the Bengals is the must have game. Arizona(6-7) is playing the best that they have played all year. The Cardinals just came off of a must win against the Forty Niners to keep their playoff long shot hopes alive. The best part for Cincinnati is they are getting Arizona at home. This is one of those games that will go down to the wire. Of course the toughest game of the 3 comes last. Baltimore(10-3) might be fighting for their division life or an outside shot at a top seed or a 2nd seed. The best thing for Cincinnati would be for the Ravens to have nothing to play for. The way I see it, Cincinnati finishes with a 9-7 record. It will be a coin flip situation to see if that is good enough to get the final spot.

Tennessee Titans 7-6 With 3 games left, the Titans hit a road block when the face mask that wasn't ....well was not called. It cost the Titans the chance to tie the game. They may have not gone on to get the job done against the Saints but it would have been nice to have it done right. The 0-13 Colts are up first for the Titans. That game should be a win. Not much more to say about that weak game. The 2nd game up is Jacksonville, another game that the Titans should get an easy win. The last game for the Titans will be their toughest task. Houston(10-3)If the number one seed is all wrapped up this could be a wonderful chance for the Titans to finish 3-0 over the last three weeks of the season. To bad for them that might not be enough to get the job done. I believe that the Titans will sweep the last three games and end their season at 10-6! If this does happen then we will have a team between Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Tennessee that have 10 wins or more and miss the dance.

Oakland Raiders 7-6 With 3 games left I said before the season that Oakland would not win more then 7 games. With the gutsy moves that this team has made, I honestly hope that I was wrong. This is a team that even sweeping the last 3 games of their season, will need help from Denver or the other 4 teams I have mentioned above. The entire Raider season will come down to this weeks game against the Lions(8-5) The bad part for the Raiders is they give up a ton yards via the pass and that is all the Lions can do. They will have to have a balanced attack with the running game leading the way. The more rest that the defense gets, the better chance they will have to slow down the Lion offense. The Kansas City Chiefs(5-8) are next for the Raiders. The Raiders should be able to win easily against the Chiefs. If the don't care Oakland team shows up then they will lose this game and the next. The last game for Oakland is against the ever rising Chargers(6-7). The Raiders almost have to hope that San Diego is out of it. I have a feeling , if the Chargers are alive the raiders will bet blown out of the stadium. I see the Raiders finishing at 8-8. Then they will have to build with free agents and trades. The Raiders got rid of any draft pick with these trades that will have gotten nothing done.

San Diego Chargers 6-7 With Baltimore Ravens(10-3) this week it all comes down to this week. They will not get a wild card berth. They have one chance. They have to have Denver and Oakland tank. Then they must sweep the board. I see them ending the season at 8-8 like the Oakland Raiders.

The way we see it.

AFC Division Winners

East...New England Patriots 12-4
North....Baltimore Ravens 12-4
South....Houston Texans 13-3
West....Denver Broncos 10-6

AFC Wild Card Winners

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
In this case Baltimore will have the same record but Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens twice. That will give the division title to the Ravens.

New York Jets and Tennessee Titans 10-6 This will cause another 10-6 team to miss the playoffs. In most cases 10 wins is more then enough to get you invited to the dance.

NFC


The NFC has a total of 11 teams involved in the chase for the Superbowl. Funny part is the top team of all top teams is in the NFC. There will be little argument that the Green Bay Packers are riding very high. I am a handicapper that really does believe in defense and controlling the game on the ground. Both on offense and defense. It is very tough for me to see a one sided team rule the football world. I believe their offense is incredible. They can almost score at will via the air. I also believe that you have to be able to close out a game by grinding out a few late game first downs. The packers have figured out how to do this by really using their short passing game as a running game. The Packers give up 21 points a game and over 100 yards a game on the ground. This means that teams can move the football on them. You would not see stats like this on a team that is going to go 16-0. There is no doubt about this outcome. With who they play the last 3 games they will not have to play their starters to get the job done. There is no doubt in my mind that the Packers will not win the Superbowl or get to the big game.

The Green Bay Packers 13-0 With 3 games remaining versus weak teams, it looks like an easy 16-0 regular season. Your number one seed and more then deserving.

San Francisco Forty Niners 10-3 With 3 games left the Niners have a lot to play for and a chance to get the 2nd seed. This week San Francisco has a very strong test with Pittsburgh coming to town. With San Francisco it is pace makes the game. In a tight game with few points scored the Niners can get a lead and their great defense can shut any team down. I see the Niners finishing at 12-4.

New Orleans Saints 10-3 With 3 games left the Saints are in the drivers seat over the Atlanta Falcons. The only winning team that they play is the Atlanta Falcons. With Minnesota and Carolina as the only other teams they have to face, the division looks to be the Saints. We see the Saints ending at 12-4.

New York Giants 7-6 In the NFC East. The division that no team wants. On a weekly basis the division is given to one team or another. At the start of the year, the East looked as though it would take at least 11 or 12 wins to get the job done. The Giants have 3 games left and they could win all 3 or lose all 3. Yes it is that nuts. Looks like 8-8 for the Giants.

NFC Wild Cards. This is where the real fun starts! You have 7 teams for 2 spots.

Dallas Cowboys 7-6 With 3 games left and zero consistency, it should be a crazy ride. Game one of the 3 and the Cowboys get a break by getting Tampa Bay. This should be a game that Dallas owns with no problems. games 2 and 3 are gonna decide division and knockout one or two teams from wild card consideration. I have the Cowboys going 8-8 on the year. Nothing cleared up here.

Philadelphia Eagles 5-8 The eagles have 3 games left and have underachieved all season long. A 3-0 over the last 3 games and at least they have some sort of redemption. I said some sort not full redemption. The problem with trying to go 3-0 over the next three weeks is the Eagles have a very tough schedule. As much as I would love to see the three top teams in the East all be 8-8 and wait for all the fun tie breakers I cannot see the Eagles winning but one of their last 3 games. So as we see it the Eagles finish at 6-10.

Detroit Lions 8-5 The Lions have 3 games left and have to be at the top of the mental midget team of all time. This team has a ton of talent and could not handle becoming winners. Their coach lost control of his team and instead of just playing solid tough hard hitting football, they had to show just how ignorant and selfish to a man a team can be. This team showed little or no class in winning or losing. Their best chance at a win is this week against the Oakland Raiders. This is the heartless bowl. About 6 weeks ago I called for the Lions to finish at 8-8 on the year. I have amended that a little bit. I believe that the Lions will find a way to get one more win on the season. We see the Lions finishing at 9-7. I think that is as good as it gets for Detroit.

Chicago Bears 7-6 Three weeks ago before losing their quarterback and the next week their all pro running back, it looked like the Bears were on their way to something very special. Now the Bears are hoping to limp into the playoffs. It really looks like an 8-8 finish for the Chicago Bears. I believe that might be giving them one more win then they will get. They may not be able to hang with Minnesota in the final game of the season. A tough way to end their year.

Atlanta Falcons 8-5 With 3 games left it looks like the Falcons will grab one of the Wild Card spots. They will have earned it. Unlike every other team looking for a playoff spot in the NFC, the Falcons will be winning their way into the dance. Worse case for the Falcons is a 2-1 record over the last 3 weeks. Even if they were able to sweep their way into the playoffs, it looks like the Saints will have done enough to win their division. We see the Falcons finishing the season at 10-6. A solid follow up season to their number one seed last year.

Seattle 6-7 With 3 weeks to go Seattle has been playing very solid football with their running back Lynch leading the way. If you would have said at the start of the year that Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona were a better threesome then Dallas, New York and Philadelphia, people would have thought you drunk. Looks like wins against Chicago and Arizona are possible and a tough game against San Francisco makes for a good chance at a 9-7 record. I see them finishing the season at 8-8. A very strong finish to a tough start to the year.

Arizona 6-7 With 3 games left Arizona also looks to be playing their best football as the season comes to a close. It is sad that they are playing a Bengals team who is looking towards their own playoff berth to end the season. In the case of Arizona it is Larry Fitzgerald carrying the load. He is an amazing player who can man handle any secondary. We look for Arizona to finish at 8-8.

NFC Division Winners

East....New York Giants 8-8
North....Green Bay Packers 16-0
South....New Orleans Saints 12-4
West....San Francisco 49ers 12-4

NFC Wild Card Winners

Atlanta Falcons 10-6

Detroit Lions 9-7 and the Seattle Seahawks 9-7
I don't know how the tie breakers will workout here but what an amazing finish we are in for this season.

The fun part here is as a handicapper at the start of three weeks to go, we have 20 teams still alive for a number of playoff spots.

NCAA Basketball 14-6

Iona -3

Auburn -1.5

College of Charleston -2.5

NHL 5-3 +3.25

Ottawa +150

Minnesota +125

Have a great day.














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