Yesterday was a nice winning day with the Yankees playing well, but the game that made my day was the Cubs at +150. Zambrano pitched great after the first inning and that is why I love the mind part of handicapping.
When you look at games and do your handicapping, do you ever look at the MIND side of things? When I do my handicapping I always like to look at things that may be going on with a team as a whole or individual players. One of the easiest Mind bleeps to look at, is when a team blows a big lead late. In the very next game no matter who they are playing or what sport, you play against the team that lost the game before.
In baseball this is when a team blows a 7 or 8 run lead at any point of the game. Also in baseball if a team has a 5 run lead in the 7th or later and losses. Also 4 run lead or more in the 8th or 9th inning. If a team losses this type of game their mind will still be in the mind set of we should not have lost yesterday and before they know it......Bam they are behind early and often today.
This works in all sports. What we as handicappers forget is these guys are human and not machines. A simple mind game is taking a pitcher that lost his last start against the same pitcher in his last start. People are quick to assume that the same thing will happen, but what goes though the mind of the winner is, I won last start should be a cakewalk. What goes through the loser of the last game is, I need to buckle down and I do not want to lose to this guy again.
The odds will be slanted to the winner of the last meeting and you will get better odds then you might have before that last game. In both of these situations you really want to be the underdog or a small favorite.
Here is a nice team bleep angle. When a losing team fires their manager. You go with this team with the new manager because the entire team will be on their toes. This season Oakland fired their manager on the way to Chicago to play the Whitesox. It came so fast that I waited until game 2 of the series to play Oakland with their new manager in place. As with all of these, the team must be a dog or a small favorite.
Superstar down angle. This is really good in football. The first game a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, defensive back or linebacker go down to injury. You play ON the team that lost the big name player. You will get the best of it when it comes to the spread and everyone will be on the other side. They do not put the spread out there to give people free money.
The most important piece of the football puzzle is the CENTER. If the center goes down, pass the game or go to the other team as a play. Look at the Oakland/Tampa Bay Super Bowl, which would show you an all pro center for the Raiders going crazy and Tampa Bay killing the Raiders all night long. I am not saying Tampa Bay would not have won the game anyway but when the man who runs the show on offense is not there...... Line play implodes.
Back to what started this rant. The Yankees went into Chicago to play the Cubs and word on the street was that the Yankees were going to leave town with Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano had to be licking his lips and packing his bags but it did not work out and Zambrano was still a Cub. My thought on this was that Carlos Zambrano would come with his A game and +150 looked like a wonderful bargain. Bingo! he pitched really well after the first inning and the Cubs got the win at +150.
These are just a few instances where the numbers do not make a difference but the MIND makes the profit.
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