Yesterday Roy Halladay was on the mound and showed that players are human and not machines! People played the Phillies and lost a lot of juice, with the better pitcher and team losing rather easily. Roy couldn't bare the heat, as anyone of us might not deal with such heat. He looked average at best and only lasted 4 innings. That was his shortest outing in years. It turns out that he gives up almost 2 runs a start more in the heat then at any other time. This proved that these guys are human and you can't just plug them in and the same guy will show up every time. The weak handicapper will cry foul here a say fix. Nope, it was just to hot. Little situations like this happen everyday and your job as a winning player is to find these nuggets before the game is played.
Baseball 75-91 -1.45 units
Tampa Bay +100
Cleveland +120
Milwaukee -120
San Francisco -140
Have a great day.
Showing posts with label angles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label angles. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Saturday, June 25, 2011
The stars are all there for todays Baseball, Jump in
The baseball night was very nice yesterday with a 4-3 record picking up 1.90 units. Today is a very strong day and night in Baseball. This is the best card I have seen all month. Hot teams are playing cold teams and those teams that are hot are UNDERDOGS. It is all systems go today.
Baseball 34-35 +4.70 units
Colorado +220 Are you kidding me? Cook for the Rockies is a sinker ball pitcher who can give the Yankees fits. Sabathia is a fine pitcher but at -260 is a bit much. Yankees are only 5 games over 500 at home while the Rockies are 1 game over 500 on the road. +220 Really ?
Angels +125 The Dodgers over the last 10 games a 3-7 record, while the Angels are a mirrored 7-3. The Angels are 23-19 on the road, Dodgers 18-23 at home. The pitchers are very close but overall team play goes to the Angels. As usual the true kicker +125.
Washington +150 Nationals have won 4 in a row and are very hot right now. White Sox just under 500 at home and only 5-5 in their last 10 games while Washington is 9-1. You also have a very even pitching match up here as well. The true kicker which makes this a strong play on the underdog is the hangover affect with the White Sox losing in an epic game yesterday.
San Francisco -130 I would play this game all the way to -150. The Giants have won 3 in a row and win 60% of their games at home. This is a very strong angle and one of the few angles I will play a favorite.
Arizona +170 Detroit only 4-6 last 10, and Arizona 6-4 last 10. Everybody loves Verlander including me. Nobody knows how good Collmeter has been for Arizona with a very solid 2.09 E.R.A and he goes deep into games as does Verlander.
Cubs +100 Zambrano on a mission right now. Kansas City has lost 6 in a row while their young talent is feeling the dog days of June right now.
Toronto +130 A good solid pitching match up here, so it comes down to hitting and odds both on the Blue Jays side right now. St Louis last 10 3-7 and feeling the loss of their all-star first baseman.
Minnesota +140 Both teams in a cold spell right now. Worth a play on the Twins at +140 to see if they are done with their huge comeback for their season. I think they put it all out there today or slide back to out of there.
Pittsburgh +130 Boston 3 losses in a row, Pittsburgh 3 wins in a row. There is an angle that also says play against a team that has lost 3 in a row and are favorites on the road. It gets very powerful when the team they are playing has won 3 in a row. This is a 4 angle game. Very rare in handicapping.
Have a great day.
Baseball 34-35 +4.70 units
Colorado +220 Are you kidding me? Cook for the Rockies is a sinker ball pitcher who can give the Yankees fits. Sabathia is a fine pitcher but at -260 is a bit much. Yankees are only 5 games over 500 at home while the Rockies are 1 game over 500 on the road. +220 Really ?
Angels +125 The Dodgers over the last 10 games a 3-7 record, while the Angels are a mirrored 7-3. The Angels are 23-19 on the road, Dodgers 18-23 at home. The pitchers are very close but overall team play goes to the Angels. As usual the true kicker +125.
Washington +150 Nationals have won 4 in a row and are very hot right now. White Sox just under 500 at home and only 5-5 in their last 10 games while Washington is 9-1. You also have a very even pitching match up here as well. The true kicker which makes this a strong play on the underdog is the hangover affect with the White Sox losing in an epic game yesterday.
San Francisco -130 I would play this game all the way to -150. The Giants have won 3 in a row and win 60% of their games at home. This is a very strong angle and one of the few angles I will play a favorite.
Arizona +170 Detroit only 4-6 last 10, and Arizona 6-4 last 10. Everybody loves Verlander including me. Nobody knows how good Collmeter has been for Arizona with a very solid 2.09 E.R.A and he goes deep into games as does Verlander.
Cubs +100 Zambrano on a mission right now. Kansas City has lost 6 in a row while their young talent is feeling the dog days of June right now.
Toronto +130 A good solid pitching match up here, so it comes down to hitting and odds both on the Blue Jays side right now. St Louis last 10 3-7 and feeling the loss of their all-star first baseman.
Minnesota +140 Both teams in a cold spell right now. Worth a play on the Twins at +140 to see if they are done with their huge comeback for their season. I think they put it all out there today or slide back to out of there.
Pittsburgh +130 Boston 3 losses in a row, Pittsburgh 3 wins in a row. There is an angle that also says play against a team that has lost 3 in a row and are favorites on the road. It gets very powerful when the team they are playing has won 3 in a row. This is a 4 angle game. Very rare in handicapping.
Have a great day.
Monday, June 20, 2011
What is, ISN'T and what ISN'T is or be backwards and WIN
Yesterday was a nice winning day with the Yankees playing well, but the game that made my day was the Cubs at +150. Zambrano pitched great after the first inning and that is why I love the mind part of handicapping.
When you look at games and do your handicapping, do you ever look at the MIND side of things? When I do my handicapping I always like to look at things that may be going on with a team as a whole or individual players. One of the easiest Mind bleeps to look at, is when a team blows a big lead late. In the very next game no matter who they are playing or what sport, you play against the team that lost the game before.
In baseball this is when a team blows a 7 or 8 run lead at any point of the game. Also in baseball if a team has a 5 run lead in the 7th or later and losses. Also 4 run lead or more in the 8th or 9th inning. If a team losses this type of game their mind will still be in the mind set of we should not have lost yesterday and before they know it......Bam they are behind early and often today.
This works in all sports. What we as handicappers forget is these guys are human and not machines. A simple mind game is taking a pitcher that lost his last start against the same pitcher in his last start. People are quick to assume that the same thing will happen, but what goes though the mind of the winner is, I won last start should be a cakewalk. What goes through the loser of the last game is, I need to buckle down and I do not want to lose to this guy again.
The odds will be slanted to the winner of the last meeting and you will get better odds then you might have before that last game. In both of these situations you really want to be the underdog or a small favorite.
Here is a nice team bleep angle. When a losing team fires their manager. You go with this team with the new manager because the entire team will be on their toes. This season Oakland fired their manager on the way to Chicago to play the Whitesox. It came so fast that I waited until game 2 of the series to play Oakland with their new manager in place. As with all of these, the team must be a dog or a small favorite.
Superstar down angle. This is really good in football. The first game a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, defensive back or linebacker go down to injury. You play ON the team that lost the big name player. You will get the best of it when it comes to the spread and everyone will be on the other side. They do not put the spread out there to give people free money.
The most important piece of the football puzzle is the CENTER. If the center goes down, pass the game or go to the other team as a play. Look at the Oakland/Tampa Bay Super Bowl, which would show you an all pro center for the Raiders going crazy and Tampa Bay killing the Raiders all night long. I am not saying Tampa Bay would not have won the game anyway but when the man who runs the show on offense is not there...... Line play implodes.
Back to what started this rant. The Yankees went into Chicago to play the Cubs and word on the street was that the Yankees were going to leave town with Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano had to be licking his lips and packing his bags but it did not work out and Zambrano was still a Cub. My thought on this was that Carlos Zambrano would come with his A game and +150 looked like a wonderful bargain. Bingo! he pitched really well after the first inning and the Cubs got the win at +150.
These are just a few instances where the numbers do not make a difference but the MIND makes the profit.
When you look at games and do your handicapping, do you ever look at the MIND side of things? When I do my handicapping I always like to look at things that may be going on with a team as a whole or individual players. One of the easiest Mind bleeps to look at, is when a team blows a big lead late. In the very next game no matter who they are playing or what sport, you play against the team that lost the game before.
In baseball this is when a team blows a 7 or 8 run lead at any point of the game. Also in baseball if a team has a 5 run lead in the 7th or later and losses. Also 4 run lead or more in the 8th or 9th inning. If a team losses this type of game their mind will still be in the mind set of we should not have lost yesterday and before they know it......Bam they are behind early and often today.
This works in all sports. What we as handicappers forget is these guys are human and not machines. A simple mind game is taking a pitcher that lost his last start against the same pitcher in his last start. People are quick to assume that the same thing will happen, but what goes though the mind of the winner is, I won last start should be a cakewalk. What goes through the loser of the last game is, I need to buckle down and I do not want to lose to this guy again.
The odds will be slanted to the winner of the last meeting and you will get better odds then you might have before that last game. In both of these situations you really want to be the underdog or a small favorite.
Here is a nice team bleep angle. When a losing team fires their manager. You go with this team with the new manager because the entire team will be on their toes. This season Oakland fired their manager on the way to Chicago to play the Whitesox. It came so fast that I waited until game 2 of the series to play Oakland with their new manager in place. As with all of these, the team must be a dog or a small favorite.
Superstar down angle. This is really good in football. The first game a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, defensive back or linebacker go down to injury. You play ON the team that lost the big name player. You will get the best of it when it comes to the spread and everyone will be on the other side. They do not put the spread out there to give people free money.
The most important piece of the football puzzle is the CENTER. If the center goes down, pass the game or go to the other team as a play. Look at the Oakland/Tampa Bay Super Bowl, which would show you an all pro center for the Raiders going crazy and Tampa Bay killing the Raiders all night long. I am not saying Tampa Bay would not have won the game anyway but when the man who runs the show on offense is not there...... Line play implodes.
Back to what started this rant. The Yankees went into Chicago to play the Cubs and word on the street was that the Yankees were going to leave town with Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano had to be licking his lips and packing his bags but it did not work out and Zambrano was still a Cub. My thought on this was that Carlos Zambrano would come with his A game and +150 looked like a wonderful bargain. Bingo! he pitched really well after the first inning and the Cubs got the win at +150.
These are just a few instances where the numbers do not make a difference but the MIND makes the profit.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)