The best week to even think about betting the preseason, is week 3. The starters will play the longest of the entire preseason. The better teams will make sure to get out of the preseason in one piece. The losing bottom of the barrel teams will try to win any game they can. New coaches will coach to win.
The only team that has been a surprise.....The New England Patriots, who have blown out their first two opponents. This team is a Super Bowl contender and has talent from their 1rst string to their the 3rd string.
You want to look at good defenses giving up more points then usual and bad offenses scoring more in preseason. Do not get fooled going into the regular season. The preseason really means nothing. Betting wise that is. For players trying to make the team, it means the world.
The Bears have a above average defense, but have given up 44 points in two games. In the regular season this would be 1 point a game away from being a BAD defense. Handicap players that do well, do not handicap the overall performance. The Bears team will not be a C defense during the regular season.
The Washington Redskins are in a odd situation. Their coach never had to try and win preseason games when with the Denver Broncos. Now he has to win any game he can. The culture in Washington is one of losing. In order to change the culture, the Redskins feel they have to go 4-0 in the meaningless season.
When you have a bad team, a new coach and not many established veterans and a number of new players to a new system. This team must win in the preseason, to establish something good. When this type of team has a poor preseason, it could be a very long season and a team to bet against. The spreads will be playable early. Soon this team will be a play on because the number will go to high.
The team in question? The Oakland Raiders. They lost a decent tight end and a great secondary player. The new head coach, while not being new to the team as a whole could be some help. The best quarter back on the team is probably not going to get the chance to play that spot in the NFL. At first look, 8-8 looked very easy and with an upset or two it could be a nice year. At a deeper look this might be a very tough year for the silver and black.
The Buffalo Bills are another team that lost some weapons from a decent offense last year. This team was limited anyway and to lose any weapons can hurt deeper then most teams that might have lost a star. Buffalo is a team in need of a good preseason but looks bad on both sides of the ball. Starters in or not. Looks like a tough year for Buffalo again.
This week I look for a team that is established and was a solid 3 seed last year. The Atlanta Falcons ran into a buzz saw in the playoffs last year. Green Bay who won it all, put it all together at Atlanta in the playoffs and completely dominated the Falcons in the playoff game. The Falcons are 0-2, which is no big deal. The way this team got knocked out was a big deal and with most of their starters in action for week 3 of the preseason, I look for the Falcons to get a win and cover this week.
The Detroit Lions are the not so secret up and coming team. Last year I called for them to be very good over the next few years. The media has been all over the Lions as on the rise. The spread may catch up to them to quickly. As a handicapper you really want to stay one step ahead of the odds makers. There might be so much talk about the Lions that the lines might be out of whack. even though they might win more games the covers might be tough to come by.
If you must bet preseason, handicap coaches and what they must accomplish when it does not count and remember the opposite of the truth will tend to happen at this time of year.
Have a great day
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