This Bowl season has been an odd one for me. I have had 2 pushes that were pure winners and I have hit all my totals but one.
I have always been a side player, so with a record of 15-2 on totals this year in the NFL and college I must continue to look at totals going into next season. My record in the Bowl games is a very low percentage for me. I usually hit close to 70% overall with my Bowl plays but this year with so many favorites winning, I feel very lucky to be ahead of the game at all with this years Bowl plays.
NCAA Regular plays or 1 unit selections 92-73 +11.70 units
NCAA Regular plays or 1 unit selections BOWL Games 13-10 +2.00 units 57%
NCAA Top plays or 2 unit selections Bowl Games 4-3 +1.40 units
NCAA Total Bowl Plays including double units 21-16 57% + 3.40 units Bowls Only.
The College season with an overall look of +11.70 units is acceptable. I have to admit I am used to picking up closer to 20 units then 10 for the College Football season. Winning is winning and any win overall will do.
With a total of 6 selections left for my Bowl season and 2 double unit plays I can still get to over a 15.00 unit season, which would taste nice after all the work I have put into this season. The harder I worked the more big kicks were missed this year. As I said a winning season will always be acceptable.
NFL 47.35 +8.50 units at 57% I am very happy with my single unit selections. The public has had a wonderful season with a number of the easy looking plays hitting every week.
NFL 10-8 +2.40 units The double play record has been most un pleasant. Games that I have counted on in the past just did not hit this year. Again a number of easy looking games, the public hit and I did not.
I know a number of big time bettors that would take 57% all day long and twice on Sunday. I like the look of the playoffs but they will be very tough. I have One very strong double play on Sunday and a couple of weaker plays on the rest of the slate.
I love to teach people how to win. It is one the best parts about being a handicapper. I will admit I have been talking to a young man in Chicago that is on the right road and in the long run this young man will be a long term winner.
Twice this year he went against me hard. In both instances he came out ahead of the game. I almost hated that he won and not because I was wrong but his logic was on the easy side. He said that in College Football that Houston would crush Penn State and I of course had the tough looking play. I took the better defense and the side that only alumni were on. I gave a number of reasons of why Penn State would cover the over inflated number and it did not happen. In the future this one easy looking bet could cost this young man a number of losses.
The second play was the New York Giants over the Dallas Cowboys. My friend again beat me at my own game and this could cost him a number of losses in the future. The NFC has a fact that underdogs do very well in East VS East. Against the number it is very close to 70% over the last 5 years or more. He said he liked the Giants because they were at home and had to win. it has been my observation that the Public loves these games and the Books make a killing. It did not happen this way. I had the Cowboys as my game of the year and they barley showed up.
I am very happy that my friend cashed a bet. I just do not want this to cost him in the future. Games like that where the public makes a killing, make games in the future that will win big for the Books look to easy.
Fuulcardreports.com!!!!!!! If you want to be a winning horse player the only way to play is with fullcardreports.com. Yesterday with just a quick look I hit a very nice 9-1 shot (20-1 ML) with a 206 exacta and a 773 trifecta. Remember fullcardreports.com.
Today I have 2 NCAA Bowl plays.
Kansas State +10 Look for a number of big plays from the well coached Kansas State team. They have a very nice rushing edge and a power rating edge. This line is out of whack. Kansas State is 7-1 as an underdog this year and are a plus 16 in turnovers. Ask Clemson how tough it is to cover as a favorite when you turn the ball over.
Kansas State Over 63.5 A 2 UNIT PLAY. As I said above, look for a number of big plays from both teams. Although I look for State to run the ball well, this does not mean time consuming drives. The coach of Arkansas is a bit of a punk and if he has the chance to rub it in he will. Both teams will average scoring drives of less then 3 minutes at a time and this does wonders for big time overs. The weakness of the Arkansas defense is against the run, giving up close to 5 yards a carry. The weakness of the State defense is the pass. They rank 104th verse the pass. So it is a classic strength on offense against the weakness on both defenses. The two teams are a combined 17-5 to the over this season. 77% to the over.
Have a great day.
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