The Super Bowl has arrived, or the offenses have arrived and this year in the NFL defense does not matter at all. Through the years, the worst you will get is a B versus A in the defensive area of the football.
After the miracle television ratings must win games of the Patriots against the Giants, we have two shit defenses going up against one another. I rate teams A, B, C as it get's no worse then C.
This year the Giants have the C defense with no running game. Another thing that champions usually have is a solid running game to end the game when ahead. The Giants rush for under a 100 yards a game while the Patriots are respectable at 111 a game on the ground. It is far from ground and pound. It is 5 receiver sets where the running back gets a free run up the middle for at least 6yards.
So instead of two incredible A defenses with the Ravens and Forty Niners and an epic defensive struggle we get two shit defenses who have leaky secondaries. It so happens that the strength of both teams is throwing the football.
The average fan is going to love the track meet that I see coming down the road today. By all rights it looks as though the Giants should have been a very good running team this year but it did not happen this way. I don't know if the running backs have no guile or if the blocking schemes were not right to pound the football.
I like everyone on the planet told my son right after the Forty Niner game that without looking at anything that the Giants were the easy play. Well everyone on the planet stayed with that pick. I have read, watched and heard why the Giants cannot lose this big game.
Then I made my charts and broke this game down as I would any other game. I could not believe my eyes. The New England Patriots are a very strong play on Sunday. They have the better defense, and an outstanding offense that will give the Giants all kinds of problems. Unlike the injured Packers, the no dimensional Falcons and the short handed Forty Niners. New England has a legit 5 headed monster on offense.
Besides the 5 headed monster, better coaching and the sneaky defense that is better then the Giants the Patriots are the number one seed riding the most silent 10 GAME WINNING STREAK in football history!!! That's correct a 10 game winning streak. That makes two very hot teams, with one team getting completely overlooked. Back to the 5 headed monster.
Start at the top. Tom Brady, he and the best coach in football had God status taken away from them in 2007/2008 Super Bowl. I have been told their is no revenge in the Super Bowl. To a point I believe this. This coach and this quarterback remember what happened and coach has worked overtime to try and duplicate what the Forty Niners did to the Giants in the second half of the NFC Championship game. But for 2 fumbles by Kyle Williams the Forty Niners would be here in full defensive force. Tom has been told his entire career his short comings and the perfect season was taken away by luck in the end. He will play out of his mind.
Wide Out Branch as I have been told by more then one person is not a speedster, so how will he do anything in the game? I have been told this by more then one good handicapper but I have an outlook that will let Branch have a great game. A game that he had when he was an MVP in the Super Bowl. It is all about match ups and schemes. The tight end is the main weapon for the Patriots and he will be getting a lot of attention. Doubled and spied, so what will this do? It will allow Branch to sneak down the sideline on a wheel route or a stop and go and their will be 5 or 6 deep chances that mister Brady will not miss. I see Branch making 2 deep catches for huge plays.
Tight end, he will get open down the middle early and often. With his speed and size he will give the weak Giants secondary fits. Now the very fun part. When he is doubled and stopped look for Hernandez and Welker to light it up underneath. When Branch, Welker and Hernendez are covered a running back will slide out and gaind a quick 12 to 15 yards. There are weapons short, medium and deep. It will be very hard for the Giants to cover it all.
Wes Welker will be the outlet from hell for the Patriots by getting his 10-12 cathes at 10-15 yars at a time. If the RAVENS could not hammer Tom Brady then he will have time to find his five headed monster. Tom will throw for 350 at least with all of his receivers getting open with time.
Star Tight end. Hernandez, Welker, This is the biggest game of Ocho Cinco's career and like Boldin like last week the veteran will show up. Then their is Branch who has done great in big games. I am leaving out the two capable running backs who will have opportunities. Again the Giants will not be capable of covering all of those weapons. Look for the forgotten one mister Cinco to have his chances all game. I am happy for him, it has been a long time coming to get to this one game that matters. If Boldin for the Ravens can show heart, so can mister Cinco!
Funny part that when all of these guys are getting open, it will open some huge running lanes.
So a better defense, a defense that only has to slow down two wide outs and and the tight ends who will not get a bunch of attention.
New England Patriots 38 New York Giants 27
I really see the Patriots scoring in the 40s but I do not want to overstep what I really think. Remember I did not stay they would stop the Giants. I said Slow down the mighty G men.
One last thing about this Super Bowl.
I have read on many gambling sites, which I do not do often because I have my own though process. I would say after reading up to 150 blogs and this is not media but other handicappers. There is a difference of 140 New York Giants and the under picks and no more then 10 saying New England or the under. I have never seen a great team so over looked as the team that has won 10 games in a row and are the number one seed from the AFC.
The MEDIA, well that is a different story. I have not seen one media type pick the New England Patriots. I will say it again. Patriots winners of 10 in a row. The Patriots are the number one seed. The Patriots who have key players that have won more then one Super Bowl. We call it the squares and the squares are all over the New York Giants and the under. the public is never on the under. This game they are allover the under, which I am either the worst handicapper on the planet or the Bookies are going to make a killing.
I have a handicapping friend for 15 years that I have the most respect for of any handicapper I know and I could not bribe him to take the Patriots. He said it is all about the squares and today he called himself the square of all squares. I am bummed but will never talk someone off of a dog. He is on the dog with me so at least he is on the book makers side for half of the game. I mean this is one of two people in the handicapping world that I will every now and again play some of his plays. He will also play some of my plays as well but we tend to do our own thing. When we agree it is magic.
The NBA has been very strong while waiting for the Super Bowl and College hoops is holding it's own.
NBA 19-14 +3.60 units 58%
Memphis +4.5
NCAA Basketball 62-57 -.70 units
Minnesota PK
Niagra +6
Loyola-Maryland -9
NFL 12-10 +2.00 units 55%
New England -2.5
New England Over 53
NFL 55-36 +15.40 units 60%
Coin Toss Tails -102 I know sucker bet but 16-3 last 19 years.
Yes a score first 6 minutes -115
Yes over 6.5 Touchdowns for game -110
Yes over 3.5 Touchdowns first half +165
Giants score a first quarter touchdown +100
Patriots score in every quarter +145
Patriots convert 5.5 3rd down conversions for game -130
Eli Throws or rushes for a Touchdown in 3rd quarter +155
Giants Tynes over 1.5 field goals -105
Weathaford has a touchback in game +145
Patriots Brady Over 3.5 Touchdowns +280
Patriots Branch Yes Touchdown +200
Patriots Ocho Cinco Over 8.5 yards +100
Patriots win by 11 +2000
Last play of game NOT a kneel down +150
Giants first to kickoff +235 (only on this because this is a 50/50 prop)
Have a great day.
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